Older Phones Mean Slower Upgrades

Almost all new iPhone buyers already have a smartphone - primarily another iPhone. As Apple launches the iPhone 16 models, we want to update our analysis of the age of those previous phones. We are reminded that even with the introduction of new, leading-edge features, iPhone owners continue to hang on to the phone they already own. The trend has moderated slightly in the past year or so, but it remains a dominant factor in explaining iPhone upgrade cycles.

The latest CIRP data shows that over the past year, more than one-third of new US iPhone buyers owned their previous phone for three years or longer, while just under one-third owned their previous phone for two years or less (Chart 1). Note this data includes buyers with either an iPhone or Android phone as their previous smartphone.