Tariff Fears Encouraged Long-Awaited iPhone Upgrades

We frequently take calls from clients, investors, and reporters asking for the latest data about the age of the phone that an iPhone buyer had before the one they just bought. Everyone wants to know: how long do iPhone buyers keep their old phone?

These holding periods have grown longer, basically since the end of two-year carrier subsidized phone purchase contracts. That continued as smartphones became more durable, and battery longevity improved. The Covid pandemic temporarily altered the pattern a bit. Our latest survey shows the threat of tariff-induced price increases really moved the needle.

Generally, we look at twelve-month data on the age of the phones that iPhone buyers are retiring. That removes any seasonality in consumer purchase and upgrade patterns. For this week’s analysis, we need to look at individual, comparable quarters: January-March 2025, and the four preceding March quarters.

The percentage of US iPhone buyers who retired phones they had three years or longer surged from its consistent 30% level to 39% in the January-March period this year (Chart 1). That is a significant shift, so we have some ideas about the consumer tendencies that drove it.