The iMessage Moat is No Longer Worth the Trouble

To the eternal frustration of iPhone and Android users alike, Apple has stubbornly resisted allowing an iMessage app for Android. This of course has led to the infamous green bubbles, where Android users appear on otherwise blue iMessage text threads in a jarring green.

This division has also meant that iMessage text groups with Android participants cannot be assigned group names nor have participants added or dropped. Videos shared via text between iOS and Android users are degraded; there are no typing or message read indicators; and iOS to Android texting lacks end-to-end encryption despite Apple’s commitment to security and privacy.

Apple has insisted on using SMS for text messages outside the iMessage system, though the more advanced RCS protocol has been available and adopted by Android and all of the major mobile carriers in recent years. That changed last week, presumably under pressure from European regulators, who are also responsible for Apple’s move from proprietary Lightning connectors to USB-C charging ports on iPhones.

But, we see another reason. Apple had long urged Android users to avoid the inconveniences of messaging iOS users by simply switching to an iPhone, and subtly encouraged iPhone users to pressure their Android user friends. Earlier in the smartphone era, Apple enjoyed a steady stream of Android users switching to iPhone. This stream diminished to a relative trickle in recent years.

The percentage of iPhone buyers who previously had an Android phone fell for several years, hitting a low of 10% in 2021 (Chart 1). It bounced back somewhat in the two years after that, as iPhone promotions allowed Apple to compete a little more aggressively with Android pricing but has not returned to the switching levels of earlier years.