As the expected September announcement of new iPhone models draws near, we’ve received questions from clients, media, and friends about prospective upgrades. Will this Fall’s new iPhones succeed in persuading more customers to upgrade sooner?
Will Apple introduce compelling new features - or new models - that move buyers before they would normally retire their current iPhone? We’ve previously shown that iPhone customers replace their phone because it loses functionality, rather than because they’re drawn to one or another new or improved capability. Functionality principally pertains to battery life, display condition, and processor speed. New and improved capabilities can be anything - a better camera, a new screen (bigger, sharper, folding?!) or even a fun color.
Functionality is reflected in the age of the previous phone. And again, CIRP data shows this age of retiring iPhones has increased steadily over time.
Based on recent announcements and industry rumors, Apple has added a few variables that could shake up how and when iPhone owners retire their current iPhone and buy a new one.
Will leasing move customers to get a new iPhone every 12 or 24 months?
Will a staggered new release focus consumers on the latest features of the more premium iPhone models?
Will a foldable or other “Pro” model be a must-buy for some iPhone owners?
Will increased prices encourage current iPhone owners to wait even longer?
As of the June 2026 quarter, 39% of iPhone buyers had their previous iPhone for three years or more (Chart 1). About one-third had their previous iPhone for two years or less. The two-to-three-year cohort in the middle continues to shrink to 28%, down from 35% two years ago.