Which iPhones Will Buyers Buy? The Same Ones They Already Have

As Apple Launches its newest model lineup, iPhone 15, it will offer the same mix of base and elevated models, including the standard and Plus models, Pro, and Pro Max. Observers want to know, how will each new model sell this time out? Based on CIRP data, the best way to predict which model an iPhone buyer will buy is to know which iPhone they already own. 

We see very little switching among iPhone model tiers. The iPhone market is sort of like a one-way, two-lane road, with a solid line between the lanes. One-way because iPhone ownership predicts continued iPhone ownership, of course, but the solid line is a bit of a surprise. There is little switching between the iPhone tiers.

We looked at buyers of new iPhones since the last launch in September 2022. We then analyzed the prior iPhone that a new iPhone buyer owned for the 90%+ that previously owned an iPhone. This data covers the three full quarters since the launch of the iPhone 14 models: December 2022 and March and June 2023.

iPhones can be divided into three tiers - SE, the value priced phone (which may be the shoulder in our highway metaphor); the “standard” number iPhones: 11, 12, 13, 14, XR, and their predecessors, including minis and Pluses; and the premium tier that started with X, then XS, and now includes the numbered Pro models and their Max counterparts.

We see significant loyalty to the model tier that a buyer previously owned. Base model owners are not very likely to upgrade to a premium model. Almost two-thirds purchase another base model, while less than one-third upgrade to a premium model and a small percentage move to the SE tier (Chart 1).