Predicting iPhone 16e Market Reception
The new iPhone SE was introduced last week, and it turned out to be the new iPhone 16e. This surprise has immediate implications for the iPhone lineup and is spurring conjecture among Apple fans and analysts alike. Based on the iPhone SE’s historic market share, the iPhone 16e might not be a critical player in the lineup. Yet, based on its features and positioning, it might do better, at the expense of other iPhone models.
The iPhone 16e form factor and specs are incredibly close to the well-received flagship iPhone 16. It has the same processors and a similar, if slightly limited camera. It also supports Apple Intelligence, just like the other iPhone 16 models. Magsafe charging and accessories are notably absent.
The entry price of $599 is a significant increase from the iPhone SE’s $429 starting point, putting it more in line with the “number phones”. It is only $200 less than its iPhone 16 sibling and $100 less than its iPhone 15 cousin. It matches the price of the two-year old iPhone 14, forcing that model into retirement.
It appears that “e” phones may be part of the program going forward. Following the core iPhone 17 model launches in September, we expect Apple to announce an iPhone 17e around this time next year. That would mimic Google's introduction of “a” models in its Pixel line months after the annual Spring launch of their flagship and Pro models in recent years.
We have two iPhone analogs to look at as we start predicting the iPhone 16e’s reception. Clearly the iPhone SE experience is relevant. We can also go far back into CIRP data to see how the iPhone 5c performed back in 2013, too. The modest iPhone SE market share in recent years compared to the early market acceptance of iPhone 5c may have motivated the 16e repositioning.
The iPhone SE accounted for an average of about 7% of iPhones over its lifetime, peaking at 12% in 2020 and dropping to 5% in 2024 (Chart 1).